Squlibri macroeconomici UE (2009-2013)

Scoreboard Indicators

The headline indicators consist of the following eleven indicators and indicative thresholds, covering the major sources of macroeconomic imbalances:

• 3 year backward moving average of the current account balance as percent of GDP, with thresholds of +6% and -4% ;
• net international investment position as percent of GDP, with a threshold of -35%;
• 5 years percentage change of export market shares measured in values, with a threshold of -6%;
• 3 years percentage change in nominal unit labour cost, with thresholds of +9% for euroarea countries and +12% for non-euroarea countries;
• 3 years percentage change of the real effective exchange rates based on HICP/CPI deflators, relative to 41 other industrial countries, with thresholds of -/+5% for euroarea countries and -/+11% for non-euroarea countries;
• private sector debt (consolidated) in % of GDP with a threshold of 133%;
• private sector credit flow in % of GDP with a threshold of 15%;
• year-on-year changes in house prices relative to a Eurostat consumption deflator, with a threshold of 6%;
• general government sector debt in % of GDP with a threshold of 60%;
• 3-year backward moving average of unemployment rate, with a threshold of 10%;
• year-on-year changes in total financial sector liabilities, with a threshold of 16.5%.

MIP Scoreboard - European Commission

Questi indicati qua sopra sono i parametri di equlibrio macroeconomico UE. Indicando con 1 i parametri centrati e con la percentuale di scarto quelli non centrati ecco che si ricava questa tabella (dati ordinati in base alla media):

Dividendo in quattro gruppi i paesi in base a media e varianza otteniamo:

Paesi in relativo equilibrio (20): Austria, Belgio, Danimarca, Francia, Finlandia, Germania, Italia, Ungheria,Lettonia, Lussemburgo, Malta,Olanda, Polonia Romania, Rep. Ceca, Slovenia, Slovacchia, Lituania, Regno Unito, Svezia,
Paesi con discreti fondamentali

Paesi con media e varianza basse (5): Cipro, Portogallo, Spagna, Grecia, Croazia
In difficoltà e senza grandi movimenti

Paesi con varianza elevata e media bassa (1): Irlanda
Possibilità di ritorno all'equilibrio

Paesi con varianza e media elevate (2): Estonia, Bulgaria.
Grande movimento e risultati eccellenti